Worldwide ad spending is expected to rise 4.4 percent this year, according to the new “consensus” estimate by Warc, which lowered its original prediction made in April from 5.1 percent, Media Post reported.
The consensus is based on a weighted average of ad spending projections at current prices from a collection of ad agencies, media monitoring services, analysts’ reports, and Warc’s own proprietary projections, Warc noted. It is generally more negative than most of the other industry sources.
Among 13 major advertising markets Warc has covered, Western Europe is the least performed, especially Italy, which is expected to drop 0.7 percent this year, down 3.3 percentage points from its April outlook. Spain is also estimated to decline 0.7 percent, down 3.1 percentage points from April.
According to Warc, the downward revisions are consistent with the “recent loss of confidence in these economies.”
Some markets improved their outlooks from April, including Russia, which is now expected to expand 19.8 percent this year, up 3.6 percentage points from April. China’s outlook gained 0.8 points to 14.1 percent growth, while Canada’s increased 0.1 points to 5.4 percent growth.
In terms of media segments, Warc said online will expand the most, boosting 14.6 percent in 2011 and 13.3 percent in 2012. TV is expected to rise 5 percent this year and 7.5 percent next year.
Global ad spending consensus for 2012 for all media is now 6.3 percent, up slightly from the 6.2-percent projection in April, Warc said.